Researchers estimate global type 1 diabetes rates to rise 29% by 2049

Researchers are estimating that global rates of type 1 diabetes will increase by 29% by 2049, raising the number from 9.4 million in 2025 to 12.1 million. They are also forecasting that the number of new cases every year will increase by 14% during the same period. 

The research will be presented at the Annual Meeting of The European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) in Milan, Italy, held from September 28 to October 2 this year.

“We estimate a rising global type 1 diabetes (T1D) burden, underscoring the need to continue to improve access to insulin and quality of care, particularly in low-resource settings,” the authors say.

“Our prevalence estimates are lower than existing estimates from other sources, including the T1D Index and the Global Burden of Disease Study, mainly because of more conservative assumptions about survival in persons with T1D, particularly in older ages and low- and middle-income countries.”

Analyzing historical patterns

The calculations have been brought up using the DIAMOND-T1D model, which accounts for historical patterns of insulin availability. It looks to bring country-specific, regional, and global estimates of type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates between 1900 and 2050.

The DIAMOND-T1D model has been validated against population-based registry data in Scotland and Denmark and is expected to be available as an open-access, user-friendly web-based system in the near future. This system will allow users to create alternative country-specific epidemiological scenarios for T1D.

“In this context, the DIAMOND-T1D model offers a novel approach that allows changes in key assumptions on age-specific incidence rates and survival in T1D, enabling informed decision-making, and at the same time making the model gradually more precise when more T1D data becomes available,” the authors explain.

Country by country

Italy and other high-income countries will see increased numbers of T1D by 2049 when compared to 2025, the experts predict. Exemplifying the UK, which, according to the model, is expected to rise by a third from 313,725 to 420,551.

The US is predicted to see an increase of over half a million cases, from 1,492,825 to 2,055,235. Italy has a less steep increase, but it still amounts to a 16% rise from 205,499 to 239,145 people living with type 1 diabetes in 2049.

Researchers predict high-income countries to see a higher prevalence of the disease due to genetics and environmental triggers, while also having better detection rates due to good health care infrastructure.

Meanwhile, type 1 diabetes rates in low-income countries are also expected to increase. In Tanzania, new annual cases are expected to more than double from 3,275 to 6,177. However, the number of people in Tanzania living with the disease is still lower in comparison to those in high-income countries.