Medical appetite control: Carbery forecasts GLP-1’s continued impact on nutrition industry

In its latest Horizon 10 perspective, Carbery highlights the increasing role of GLP-1 medications in the nutrition sector, urging the food ecosystem to respond with innovative product strategies. The company’s research and innovation program concludes that the “opportunity is immense for those who adopt.” 

News of Novo Nordisk’s new Wegovy pill launching early this year in the US is also fueling these advances. The company expects that the ingestible therapy will expand access for patients who may not have sought or accepted GLP-1 treatment before, and may improve affordability. 

Carbery’s Future of GLP-1 perspective projects how different future scenarios, ranging from moderate to extreme adoption of GLP-1s, may impact the food and nutrition industries. At the same time, the report cautions that even a moderate adoption is already forcing changes that are likely to stay.

It states that a strong momentum for high-protein, high-fiber, low-sugar, and portion-controlled eating “will not reverse,” as this is driven by a growing awareness of healthy lifestyles, in addition to weight loss medications.

“GLP‑1 medications have introduced a new paradigm: medical appetite control at scale. Over the next decade, their influence on consumer behavior is set to grow, compelling food businesses to innovate rapidly,” reads the report.

Growing access to GLP-1s

The report notes that rapid adoption of GLP-1s is driven by their effectiveness. The pharmaceutical pipeline is also expanding rapidly, considering new indications for use, different combinations of satiety hormones, and more convenient formats.

Novo Nordisk’s newly launched Wegovy pill in the US may also improve affordability and expand patient access to the drug.Patents on semaglutide are set to expire in China, Brazil, and India this year. This would enable generic drugs to enter the market, which would rapidly lower costs and expand access. In the US, the largest market, the patent is set to expire in 2032.

While the market is still dominated by injectable medications, experts anticipate the introduction of more oral formats, such as Novo Nordisk’s new Wegovy tablets. The semaglutide medication was approved by the US FDA for chronic weight management last year.

Novo Nordisk cites clinical research indicating that the oral and injectable forms have comparable efficacy.

For individuals not covered by insurance, Novo Nordisk notes that the pills are available at a lower cost than the injections.

In addition to weight loss, the Wegovy pill is also indicated to reduce the risk of “major adverse cardiovascular events, such as death, heart attack, or stroke in adults with overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular disease.”

Multiple US pharmacies and healthcare companies now carry the medication, including Amazon Pharmacy, to expand its access.

Targeting non-users

The Horizon 10 perspective anticipates more consumers to adopt trends driven by GLP-1 drugs, including rising protein demand, interest in gut health, hydration concerns, skin health, and mindful alcohol consumption. However, the authors note that these trends would also exist without these medications.

“The nutritional goals of many non‑users will resemble those of users, meaning that products designed for GLP‑1 users will attract significant interest from non-users, and vice versa,” states the report.

GLP-1 users are changing their diet, with a higher intake of fruits and vegetables, nutrition bars, meat snacks, and yogurt.Both people on GLP-1s and non-users look for similar attributes in their foods, such as protein, low calories, gut health benefits, and hydration boosts, according to the authors. Therefore, they urge innovation to take these non-users into account as well.

“There will be a large group of people not on GLP‑1s and with no interest in being on them who still might be open to GLP‑1‑optimized innovation,” highlights the perspective. “Plenty of general consumers are looking for low‑calorie, nutrient-dense, high‑protein foods and will recognize that products developed for GLP‑1 users are likely to give them those things.”

The report highlights opportunities for innovation for non-users, such as foods that help sustain weight loss for “the Former or Inconsistent User” or flexible, goal-oriented products for “the Seasonal Slimmer,” who uses GLP-1s intermittently.

The authors suggest creating family-friendly formats of GLP-1 optimized products, like low-sugar spreads or shared meals with balanced nutrition, to target “the GLP-1 Household Shopper” who lives with someone on the medication.

Moreover, the report suggests developing products with similar benefits as GLP-1s for “the Alternative Explorer,” who experiments with products that mimic the effects of these drugs.

Consumer needs

According to the report, approximately 12% of US adults have used GLP-1 as a weight loss medication. The authors caution that this robust use is impacting food and beverage sales.

For example, over half of users are eating more fruits and vegetables, and a third are reducing their intake of sweets and pastries. Meanwhile, nutrition bars, meat snacks, and yogurt are seeing increased sales.

The Horizon 10 perspective notes that many non-users will recognize that products developed for GLP‑1 users can also boost their health.The authors of Horizon 10 interviewed 200 consumers across the US, UK, Germany, Italy, Brazil, and Thailand to assess how GLP-1s impacted their behavior.

Most of these respondents (95%) felt the need to supplement their diets when using GLP-1, with vitamins, protein, fiber, and minerals being the most difficult nutrients to obtain from their diet. Over 80% of respondents took vitamin and mineral supplements.

Over half of the respondents reported struggling to meet their protein needs. Specifically, 70% of respondents preferred to reach their goals with high-protein snacks, such as bars or cookies, and 65% opted for ready-to-drink shakes. Most users prefer lighter drinks, such as clear shakes, as a less filling option.

When choosing foods, the health and nutrition profile was the most sought-after attribute, important to 65% of respondents. This was strongest in Italy, Brazil, the UK, and Thailand.

Moreover, 79% of participants said they prefer functional over indulgent products.

Future predictions

The report indicates three different scenarios for the future impact of GLP-1s on the food landscape, ranging from moderate adoption to widespread use or extreme adoption.

In the most moderate scenario, the authors note that GLP-1 therapies become a routine part of obesity care, gradually reshaping food habits and industry norms by building on existing wellness trends. “The food system evolves without upheaval, nudging consumers and companies toward healthier norms.”

For example, people will eat smaller portions and prioritize fiber and protein, while food companies “double down” on better-for-you innovations with subtle reformulations.

With semaglutide patents set to expire in China, Brazil, and India this year, more generic drugs are expected to enter the market at lower costs.If GLP-1 use becomes widespread enough to “fundamentally alter how society approaches food, health, and supply chains,” the authors predict that the food industry will re-engineer itself to support healthier living.

In this scenario, a surge in GLP-1 generics in countries like China and Brazil will “drive tens of millions of new users” and trigger widespread disruption in food consumption. This would shift demand to weight maintenance products, drive interest in technologies like AI meal planners and personalized nutrition apps, and could spike interest in subscription-based meal services tailored to GLP-1 users.

In the most extreme adoption scenario, “Radical Reinvention,” the report authors elaborate that GLP-1 adoption “coincides with disruptive shocks, technological, geopolitical, or environmental, that force the food system to reinvent itself rapidly.”

Under such extreme adoption, demand for traditional foods would collapse, making radical product pivots essential for brand survival. Under this scenario, the authors envision a “coordinated evolution,” where medicine, food, and policy converge to support healthier living on a large scale.

While it is not clear yet to what level medication use may rise, the authors note that “even a moderate adoption of GLP-1 is already forcing change.”

“When people gain a powerful tool to control their appetite, the entire food ecosystem must respond,” concludes the report. “In the coming decade, that response balancing empathy for consumers’ new needs with innovative product strategies will determine which companies lead in the next era of wellness and which get left behind.”