Hidden deficiencies: High food prices pose lifelong health threat during economic crises

Surging food prices resulting from an economic crisis can pose lifelong negative health risks, like stunted growth, for children. New research from the University of Bonn, Germany, elucidates these impacts using the example of the “Asian financial crisis” in the 1990s.

During this period, distressed financial markets significantly increased the price of rice, the most essential staple food in Indonesia, which the study authors reveal had left measurable impacts on children’s development.

The paper draws data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), which has been tracking local households over many years. It links regional differences in rice price inflation between 1997 and 2000 with the biometrics of individuals in childhood and later as young adults.

“We see that a massive price shock not only has a short-term impact but can also affect the long-term physical development of children,” says Elza Elmira, the study’s lead author.

“The crisis-induced price rise increased chronic malnutrition and was associated with a 3.5 percentage point increase in child stunting. Children severely affected will not only remain shorter than their unaffected peers later in life, but they will also be significantly more prone to obesity.”

Surprising correlation

While this correlation surprised the researchers, Elmira suggests a possible explanation: “In times of crisis, families save less on calories than on more expensive, nutrient-rich foods. This results in a ‘hidden deficiency’ of important micronutrients, which slows down height growth without necessarily reducing body weight to the same extent.”

The study published in the journal Global Food Security monitored children from 1997 until 2014, when they were between 17 and 23 years old. The group who were between three and five years old during the crisis showed significant correlations with the body mass index (BMI) and the likelihood of obesity.

“Deprivation in early childhood can have lifelong effects — growth disorders are easier to measure but are often accompanied by mental development impairments and an increased risk of obesity and chronic diseases,” says co-author and professor Dr. Matin Qaim. “In the same crisis, undernutrition and obesity can both increase.”

“This underscores the importance of nutrition-sensitive crisis policy: it must specifically protect children in sensitive development stages. If food policy is only concerned about calories, it can miss the real problem.”

More pronounced in urban areas

The effects are more pronounced in urban areas, where households are more reliant on purchasing food, whereas families in rural areas often produce their own rice.

Educational background also plays a role, as the authors note. Children of mothers with low levels of education were significantly more affected than those of better-educated mothers.

“The results suggest that crisis aid should not be based solely on poverty lines,” stress Elmira and Qaim. “Especially in cities and in places with low knowledge about balanced diets, a price shock can worsen the quality of nutrition such that the consequences are long-term and irreversible.”

The Bonn researchers underscore that harvest, income, and price shocks are rising globally due to conflicts, pandemics, and extreme weather events. 

Although their study was observational, looking at statistical correlations over long periods, the authors note that all potentially confounding influences can be ruled out with certainty.

Meanwhile, separate research from last October found that tax reforms on foods can prevent 700 premature deaths. It proposed removing VAT on fruit, vegetables, legumes, and whole-grain products and introducing levies on sugar-sweetened beverages, beef, lamb, pork, and processed meat.