Climate change threatens crop nutrition and shifts consumer purchasing behaviors

Rising CO2 and temperatures are degrading the nutritional quality of crops like rice and leafy greens, heightening risks of malnutrition and chronic disease. Meanwhile, research finds preferences are shifting, with consumers often rejecting climate-affected produce unless the price or messaging resonates.

Rice, maize, and wheat — plants using the C3 pathway to fix CO2 — are the most important cereal crops globally, providing food security to billions. However, they might be at risk from the negative effects of high atmospheric CO2 levels.

A study in Engineering, for instance, warns: “For C3 plants under elevated CO2, tissue mineral concentrations are predicted to decrease by an average of 8%, while total non-structural carbohydrates (mainly starch and sugars) are predicted to increase.” 

“Although elevated CO2 promotes plant growth and yield in general, the changes in grain protein and essential mineral nutrients could increase protein-calorie malnutrition, micronutrient deficiency, and diabetes from increased dependence on starchy diets, especially in Africa, where the soils are inherently low in nitrogen and other mineral nutrients.”

Aligned with this finding, more recent research found similar effects on leafy vegetables, underscoring that hotter temperatures and increased CO2 reduce the vitamins, minerals, and overall nutritional quality and content of leafy vegetables. The researchers warn that these climate-induced changes may accelerate obesity, type 2 diabetes, and vitamin deficiency rates, impacting the health and well-being of humans and animals.

Moreover, a recent EU Parliamentary briefing notes that climate change is affecting the protein, zinc, and iron content of EU crops. 

Selling climate-affected products 

Nutrition Insight looks at how climate-affected products are already affecting consumer purchasing behavior. Little is known about this when it comes to climate-affected produce shopping.

Tarabashkina found that consumers tended to attribute quality and a justified premium price to visually attractive food.Dr. Mila Tarabashkina, senior lecturer and Master of Marketing Program Coordinator at the University of Western Australia, tells us that her research on Australian consumers found that fruit characteristics such as apples’ firmness, size, and aesthetics were important, while shoppers’ empathy toward farmers was generally low. 

“Consumers tended to avoid climate-affected produce. In this case, consumers chose unaffected alternatives at higher prices.” 

“Because past ‘odd bunch’ and ‘ugly food’ campaigns emphasized the unaffected taste and texture of such produce, which could challenge and encourage consumers to purchase climate-affected produce.”

She adds: “Consumers need to be educated about the differences they may encounter to set the right expectations.”

The research also found that consumers tended to attribute quality and a justified premium price to visually attractive food.

Short-term benefits

The research, published in Food Quality and Preference, finds that consumers concerned about price will choose climate-affected produce, but only at a discount, regardless of their empathy toward farmers. 

“In this case, consumer expectations that climate-affected produce should be discounted may disadvantage farmers with lower profit margins and diminish the value of this still-usable food,” adds Tarabashkina.

“We also found that the ‘resilience’ message resonated with consumers,” she says, such as “a resilient apple survived the drought.” In this case, consumers were more inclined to buy climate-affected apples even if their empathy for farmers was low.

While discounted prices may discourage retailers and farmers, short-term lower prices can still boost sales, prevent food waste, and educate consumers about climate-affected produce, she adds. 

“If such trials driven by discounted prices result in future long-term adoption of climate-affected produce, they offer a promising pathway to reduce food waste. This could be particularly pertinent because we found that the likelihood of picking discounted climate-affected food was higher among price-sensitive and empathetic consumers.” 

“Hence, combining cost-saving and empathy messages can represent a pathway retailers can implement in their marketing campaigns — for example, ‘support farmers and save at the same time!’ while scholars are still researching this area,” concludes Tarabashkina.