Trump’s tariff hikes risk soaring food prices and strain on nutrition security

US President Donald Trump has implemented a three-month pause following his recently imposed reciprocal tariffs on imports from 90 countries. However, the universal 10% rate for most countries remains while Trump increases the 104% tariffs against China to 125%. These tariffs are expected to raise prices across product categories, called the “largest peacetime tax hike” in the nation’s history. The move has experts worried about higher food prices and their larger impacts on nutrition security. 

The Center for Science in Public Interest (CPSI) warns that consumers will have to pay more to eat when nutrition assistance is threatened and a recession looms. It also sees farmers worrying about retaliatory tariffs, restaurants facing increased prices, and food safety systems being compromised.

However, the Natural Products Association (NPA) applauds Trump’s decision to exclude certain dietary supplement ingredients from the Harmonized Tariff Schedule. The government’s Annex II reveals certain minerals and vitamins are exempt from tariffs. Several of these essential components are mainly produced in Asia.

Daniel Fabricant, Ph.D., president and CEO of NPA, believes the Trump administration’s “willingness to listen and act” on his sector’s concerns is a “testament to their dedication to both public health and economic stability.”

“We are excited to continue collaborating with this administration to prevent supply chain disruptions and explore innovative solutions, like reshoring, that will strengthen our industry and create American jobs — priorities that reflect the president’s vision for our great nation.”

Meanwhile, a FrieslandCampina spokesperson tells Nutrition Insight the company “achieves around €150 million (~US$165 million) of its turnover in the US. On a global turnover of €12.9 billion (~US$14.2 billion), that represents just over 1%. As a result, the direct impact of the recently announced US import tariffs on EU products is small for us. The effect on our profitability is also expected to be very limited.”

“What remains difficult to estimate, however, is the indirect impact of broader global trade tensions between the US and its main trading partners, such as the EU, Canada, Mexico, and China. The consequences for exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and overall market sentiment are still uncertain. It is too early to assess the full extent of these potential effects, but we are closely monitoring the situation.”

Crashing stock and rising inflation

Trump’s tariffs resulted in a plummeting stock market but soared in relief after the tariff pause. He justified the move based on a “lack of reciprocity” in bilateral trade relations, disparate tariff rates, and non-tariff barriers and declared a national emergency.

Experts warn of food spoilage, safety risks, and black-market threats to the supply chain.Congressman Vicente Gonzalez commented: “While I agree that we should always advocate for more fair trade, South Texans need economic stability, not chaos and higher prices.”

“The Trump Administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ is a lie. These unrestrained tariffs on our trading partners will only lead to higher prices on all goods and foods. Tariffs are a tool, not a strategy. The president must focus on lowering costs for South Texans, not starting global trade wars.”

Member of the European Parliament Karin Karlsbro says: “President Trump’s tariffs are not a liberation; they are an aggressive declaration of economic isolationism. The only indicator of being liberated is price inflation for American consumers.”

CPSI cites the Budget Lab, which estimates that tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico will result in a US$1,250 loss in purchasing power per household annually.

“Higher tariffs, especially retaliatory tariffs, reduce our household purchasing power, increase prices on all purchases — including groceries — and result in lost jobs and higher unemployment. Most fresh produce (including fruit, vegetables, and nuts), seafood, cooking oil, and coffee are imported from other countries.” 

Lisa Held at Civil Eats says: “China is the biggest export market for US farmers. In response to Trump’s tariffs, the country announced it will reciprocate with 15% tariffs on US food and agricultural products, including soybeans, meat, and chicken.”

Some supplement ingredients escape tariffs, offering rare relief for the industry.“Mexico and Canada are also promising retaliation, which could impact US wine and beer exports, grains, and meat. During Trump’s first term, tariffs caused economic losses in farm country, and the USDA paid farmers tens of billions of dollars to make up for it.”

Trickle effect

CPSI highlights that tariffs can affect the food system in various and uneven ways, some of them impacting supply chain operations and food safety.

Some tariffs include steel, aluminum, construction materials, and components used for transportation and packaging in the supply chains, which are needed to move food to stores. Increased prices on these materials may result in shortages and higher grocery prices, especially for fresh and perishable foods that are mainly imported and have a short shelf life.

Impacts on the supply chain mean delays in customs could also cause spoilage before arriving at the store.

CPSI also cites tariffs arriving when the FDA and health agencies cut staff, bringing further disruptions. 

Benjamin Miller at FoodProcessing.com warns: “When legitimate import channels become prohibitively expensive, sophisticated black market operations emerge that specifically target food supply chains.” 

“These operations present unique food safety hazards, as products may be transported without temperature monitoring or verification; traceability documentation is often falsified, eliminating the ability to conduct recalls; and products may be ‘washed’ through multiple intermediaries to obscure origin.”