Deloitte sounds alarm on climate change’s trillion-dollar toll deepening global malnutrition footprint

Deloitte warns in a new report released during the ongoing COP29 that around 730 million people — nearly 10% of the global population — are presently undernourished. Feeding the world sustainably by 2070 would require limiting global warming to below 2°C while producing 40% more calories in order to feed a projected global population of around ten billion people.

The analysis, titled “Turning point: feeding the world sustainably,” quantifies the potential social and economic benefits of transforming global food production.

“This is a critical opportunity to not only limit the adverse impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, but also boost the global economy across industries at the same time,” urges Jennifer Steinmann, Deloitte global sustainability business leader.

“Investing in and supporting sustainable food systems has the potential to lift hundreds of millions of people out of malnourishment, conserve resources and mitigate climate change.”

Severe risks of inaction

Deloitte’s food systems research further underscores the risks of inaction, estimating that without intervention, unchecked climate change could cost the global economy US$190 trillion between 2025 and 2070. 

Due to inaction, anticipated damages from climate change could reduce the value of primary food production industries (such as crops, livestock, dairy and fisheries) by US$13 trillion in present value terms. 

These impacts could “reverberate through the wider food system,” warns Deloitte. The value of food manufacturing and food services sectors is anticipated to fall by an estimated US$12 trillion over this period.

According to the report, a comprehensive and sustainable transformation of the global food system could meet the minimum nutritional needs of an additional 1.6 billion people by 2070. 

The modeling suggests that almost one in five of the extra calories produced would be supplied in regions of the world where hunger is most prevalent and could support an additional 300 million otherwise undernourished people. 

Over the same period, emissions from the global food system would fall by around two-thirds, aiding the global path to net zero. These achievements could also increase global GDP by US$121 trillion in the same time period.

Global food production has outpaced demand

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global food production has historically outpaced increasing demand, yet malnourishment in lower-income regions has increased from 22% to 28% in the last decade. Meanwhile, real food prices rose by almost 20%. 

Today, the FAO estimates that approximately 730 million people around the globe are undernourished, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates an additional 80 million people are at risk of hunger due to global warming.

To that end, Deloitte’s analysis shows that transitioning to sustainable food systems could increase global food production by 9%, equivalent to a US$22 trillion increase in the output of food systems by 2070.

“This increased food production could feed the expected global population of almost ten billion people and decrease food prices by 16%, making healthier diets more accessible and affordable,” states Deloitte.

Lower-income countries could see the greatest gains, including a 12% boost in GDP and the largest increase in food consumption per capita, with an average increase in consumption in these countries of as many as 626 calories per person per day in 2070. 

Additionally, the concentration of these additional calories produced globally is expected to increase over time in areas with significant populations facing hunger, including Sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia and South America. 

System-level transformation

The report proposes five strategies for sustainable food production: accelerating technological advancements, investing in natural capital restoration, mitigating climate change, promoting sustainable consumer choices and enhancing circular economy practices to reduce food waste and resource depletion.

“The world is facing a burgeoning ‘polycrisis’ of our global food system, given that the combination of climate change, biodiversity loss, a strain on finite resources and smaller harvests significantly hinders our ability to feed the world sustainably,” says Randy Jagt, Deloitte Global Future of Food leader and co-author of the report. 

“Transforming our global food system to focus on sustainability will not only address each of these challenges but will significantly benefit populations already disproportionately impacted by food insecurity and climate change, supporting the communities that need it most.”

Coinciding with COP29, global leaders are uniting in preparation for the 2025 Nutrition for Growth Summit to address global malnutrition, with a focus on children, women and El Niño-impacted communities. The bodies are promoting sustainable solutions through partnerships and financing.