When too much isn’t enough: Food production falls short in meeting nutritional needs, study warns

26 Oct 2018 --- If nutritionists’ recommendations for fruit and vegetable consumption were followed internationally, global agriculture production would fall short in feeding populations, according to a University of Guelph study. Grains, fats and sugars are, however, overproduced with the study noting that currently 12 servings of grains per person are being produced, instead of the recommended eight; three servings of proteins instead of five and four servings of sugar instead of none. In order to reach nutritionist’s recommendations by 2050, when the global population is expected to reach 9.8 billion, consumers need to eat less meat, and the agri-food sector has to produce more plant proteins.

“We simply can't all adopt a healthy diet under the current global agriculture system,” says study co-author Prof. Evan Fraser, Holder of The Canada Research Chair in Global Food Security and Director of U of G's Arrell Food Institute.

“Results show that the global system currently overproduces grains, fats and sugars, while production of fruits and vegetables and, to a smaller degree, protein is not sufficient to meet the nutritional needs of the current population.”

A recent report from the Changing Markets Foundation similarly highlighted this pressing issue. The report, Growing the Good: The Case for Low Carbon Transition in the Food Sector, called on Governments to introduce policies that tackle both unsustainable agricultural production systems, as well as consumer overconsumption. 

The study, published in PLOS ONE, calculated the number of servings per person on the planet for each food group based on the Harvard University's “Healthy Eating Plate” guide, which recommends that half of our diet consist of fruits and vegetables; 25 percent, whole grains; and 25 percent, protein, fat and dairy.

Researchers also calculated how much land is currently used for farming and how much would be needed if everyone followed the nutritional recommendations. They then projected those numbers for 2050, when the global population is expected to reach 9.8 billion.

“What we are producing at a global level is not what we should be producing according to nutritionists,” says Fraser.

Commonly, because carbohydrates are relatively easy to produce and can feed many people, developing countries focus on growing grains, the researchers note.

Developed countries have subsidized grain and corn production for decades in order to become self-sufficient and to establish global leadership in their production, explains co-author Krishna KC. These countries have also spent far more money on research and innovation for these crops than for fruits and vegetables.

“Also fat, sugar and salt are tasty and are what we humans crave, so we have a real hunger for these foods,” says KC. “All of these factors combined have resulted in a world system that is really overproducing these types of foods.”

The researchers also found that shifting production to match nutritional dietary guidelines would require 50 million fewer hectares of arable land because fruits and vegetables take less land to grow than grain, sugar and fat. But to achieve this decrease, consumers would need to eat less meat, and the agri-food sector would have to produce more plant proteins.

The space of plant-based proteins
The number of vegans and vegetarians is snowballing and many more people, particularly among the younger generations, are reducing their meat intake, leading to a jump in the number of flexitarians. Innova Market Insights data reports that plant-based product claims increased by 62 percent globally (CAGR, 2013-2017) with growth occurring on platforms such as plant proteins and active botanicals.

“Major players in the protein industry are investing in alternative protein options such as plant-based proteins, and consumers are taking advantage of the recent increase in alternative protein options hitting the market,” says Fraser.

“Feeding the next generation is one of the most pressing challenges facing the 21st century. For a growing population, our calculations suggest that the only way to eat a nutritionally balanced diet, save land and reduce greenhouse gas emission is to consume and produce more fruits and vegetables as well as transition to diets higher in plant-based protein,” he concludes.

Incidentally, the report Growing the Good: The Case for Low Carbon Transition in the Food Sector also highlighted positive market trends around plant-based proteins, which is positive news considering the findings of this study.