“Fish wars”: WWF launches platform as early warning system to predict fisheries migration and prevent conflict

20 Nov 2023 --- The World Wildlife Fund US (WWF-US) has launched its landmark Oceans Futures platform, which pinpoints the global seascapes forecasted to experience climate-driven fisheries migration — potentially resulting in conflict or nutrition and food insecurity. The system will provide early warning signals, allowing authorities to take conservation action and prevent conflict. 

“As a career seagoing service member, I’ve witnessed first-hand how dwindling global fish stocks drive conflict and threaten communities’ main source of nutrition and economic stability,” says Admiral Paul Zukunft, the 25th Commandant of the US Coast Guard. “These dynamics will have geopolitical consequences as competition over ocean resources are likely to escalate.” 

“Oceans Futures will be the go-to handbook for nations around the globe to chart a new course for the future security and environmental stability of our oceans and the world.” 

Oceans Futures has projected the Arctic, the Gulf of Guinea and the Central Pacific as future climate-driven fisheries conflict hotspots. Based on global climate and fisheries models, the analysis highlights 20 regions of the world that will likely see conflict, nutrition and food insecurity or geopolitical tensions over fisheries rise by 2030. 

Future proof data
By early 2025, Oceans Futures will expand the body of data and use machine-learning models to understand what causes low-level conflicts to escalate and what solutions can prevent their escalation.

Hotspots were identified by combining data projecting fisheries movement by 2030 with socio-economic and security variables — including nutrition profiles, economic levels, foreign fishing vessels and contested maritime borders — that help assess a country’s risk of fisheries conflict.Governments, scientists and statisticians will use Oceans Futures to predict outcomes before they destroy the environment and communities. 

“We have a unique opportunity to predict and prevent future fish wars that will have devastating impacts on people and nature,” says Johan Bergenas, senior VP for Oceans at WWF-US. “In launching Oceans Futures, we are bringing together the partners, the science, the data and the solutions to deliver a more sustainable and peaceful future.”  

These include the regions surrounding the Arctic Ocean and within the Gulf of Guinea, Eastern Mediterranean, Eastern Tropical Pacific and Central Pacific will experience increased fisheries conflict due to climate change. The waters surrounding Cameroon, Syria, Ecuador, Indonesia, and Micronesia are of great concern. 

Oceans Futures has been designed to match the inevitable challenges fisheries will face and provide future-proof solutions for more peaceful oceans, more sustainable communities and economies and nutritious “blue” food, which billions depend on. 

The platform’s initial rollout combines projections for how fish stocks will shift over time due to climate change and how those movements will increase the risk of competition and conflict over fisheries. 

Coastal communities in many of the world’s developing nations rely on small-scale fisheries for 15-30% of their nutrient intake. However, researchers from the WWF, the University of California Santa Barbara and Harvard University found that an average of 50% of those living in these communities have an inadequate intake of essential nutrients.

Addressing hotspots
Over the last four decades, fisheries conflict has increased 20-fold, and 23% of fish stocks will move in the next eight years, leading to new fish-rich and fish-poor locations. These changes will significantly impact coastal communities and national relations between different countries.The platform’s database will be expanded in 2025.

“Climate change and national security are irrevocably linked. This has never been clearer than with depleting fish stocks around the globe due to illegal fishing and overfishing,” says Sherri Goodman, secretary general of the International Military Council on Climate & Security and senior fellow of Woodrow Wilson International Center.

“With the Oceans Futures initiative, the international community will be able to visualize how these challenges impact fisheries and the lives of key coastal communities, encouraging us to come together and take action to preserve these vitally important resources.” 

Oceans Futures is facilitated by partnerships with the Environmental Defense Fund, the International Conservation Caucus Foundation and Ode Partners. 

Meanwhile, new climate model projections identifying the drivers for non-uniform Indian and Arabian ocean warming could facilitate better marine resource management. Researchers warn that nutrient deficits could sweep across regions highly dependent on fish for daily survival.

Another study showed that many of the world’s largest aquatic food producers are highly vulnerable to human-induced environmental change, with some of the highest-risk countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa demonstrating the lowest capacity for adaptation.

By Inga de Jong

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