Experts warn bowel cancer rates will skyrocket this year from poor nutrition in younger people

30 Jan 2024 --- A new study predicts, for the first time, an increase in bowel cancer death rates among people aged 25–49 in some EU countries, with this trend being noted in the UK as early as 2021. While death rates from this type of cancer are decreasing overall across Europe, the predicted rise in this younger demographic is owed to obesity and alcohol consumption.

“Key factors that contribute to the rise in bowel cancer rates among young people include overweight, obesity and related health conditions, such as high blood sugar levels and diabetes,” says research lead Carlo La Vecchia, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at the University of Milan, Italy.

La Vecchia’s study predicts the greatest increase in bowel cancer death rates among younger people in the UK, where cases are expected to rise by 26% in men and nearly 39% in women in 2024 compared to 2018. Increases are also foreseen in Italy (1.5% in men and 2.6% in women), in men in Spain and Poland (5.5% and 5.9%, respectively) and 7.2% in women in Germany.

“Additional reasons are increases in heavier alcohol drinking over time in central and northern Europe and the UK, and reductions in physical activity. Alcohol consumption has been linked to early onset bowel cancer, and countries where there has been a reduction in alcohol consumption, such as France and Italy, have not experienced such marked rises in death rates from this cancer.”

Bowel cancer is already the deadliest cancer for young non-smokers in the EU and UK.Second biggest killer
The study, published in the cancer journal Annals of Oncology, offers predictions for cancer mortality in 2024 for the EU’s five most populous countries (Germany, France, Italy, Poland and Spain) and the UK. These estimates are determined based on cancer death certifications and population data from the WHO and Eurostat databases from 1970 until the most recent year available.

The study’s main findings are largely positive, with an estimated overall decline in cancer mortality in the EU of 6.5% among men and 4.3% among women. It finds almost 6.2 million avoided cancer deaths over 1989–2024 in the EU and 1.3 million in the UK. However, increases in colorectal cancer deaths are predicted.

Bowel cancer is currently the second biggest killer, after lung cancer, for men in the EU and the UK. For women, it is the third deadliest after breast and lung cancer. It is also the leading cause of death for non-smokers for both sexes in both the EU and UK.

The overall bowel cancer death rates in the EU and UK are more promising. In the EU, these are predicted to fall by 5% for men and 9% for women compared to 2018. In the UK, they are set to fall by 3% among men and remain stable for women.

“These overall favorable trends can be explained by improved diagnosis and treatment of bowel cancer. Death rates tended to decrease in countries with better access to screening and early diagnosis. However, the increased mortality among younger people is a concern,” comments La Vecchia.

“Early onset bowel cancer tends to be more aggressive, with lower survival rates, compared to bowel cancer that is diagnosed in older people,” he adds.

Need for policy intervention
According to La Vecchia, these concerning findings call for urgent action to be taken by policymakers and relevant stakeholders.

“In terms of prevention, governments should consider the extension of screening for bowel cancer to younger ages, starting at age 45,” he asserts.

“Screening programs vary across Europe, but an increase in the incidence of bowel cancer among younger people in the US has prompted the US Preventive Service Task Force to recommend lowering the age at which screening starts to 45 years.”

The recently released annual cancer statistics report by the American Cancer Society recommends young people shift to more plant-based foods and less meat and dairy-based products to address the similarly rising levels of bowel and other colorectal cancers in the US.

“National governments should consider strengthening policies to encourage increased physical activity, a reduction in the number of people who are overweight or obese and a reduction in alcohol consumption,” La Vecchia recommends.

By Milana Nikolova

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